Danny and Derek sit down with journalist Lily Lynch to discuss her article for The New Statesman, “The Realists Were Right”, which assesses the state of the Ukraine War 18 months into the conflict. They discuss the shifting perspectives of the war within Ukraine, what exactly happened with the much-hyped Spring counteroffensive, the future of U.S. support, the response to Lily’s piece, the role of Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky on the international stage, what role the war might play in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, and more.
Oct 18, 2023·edited Oct 19, 2023Liked by Daniel Bessner
This was a great interview! Reading that new yorker piece "two weeks at the front" gave me a similar impression that the war wasnt going exactly how the west depicts it (that morale is very low amongst military age men in ukraine and its forced conscription at this point).
I'm not sure that the west really even gave the ukranians enough mechanized armour to enable a successful counteroffensive- we only sent them around 100 modern main battle tanks (14 challenger 2s, 70 or so leopard 2 variants mostly 2a4, and 31 abrahms). I believe they have also received additional leopard 2s after Russia knocked out around 14 or so. Most of the western armored vehicles donated were either M113s at 500 of those donated or MRAPs which we sent around 1000 of those (M113s vehicles were deathtraps back in nam so these donations are of questionable value). We did give them around 200 bradleys, 50 marders, and a number of strykers. The thing is none of these vehicles can get through a minefield really and clearing minefields just takes forever. Usually you need an artillery advantage or local air superiority and there aren't enough artillery barrels and shells in the west to do that. Given how bad the counteroffensive has gone with all the new donated equipment and the fact that the west has signaled we are likely to decrease funding over time I really don't see how they are going to retake the landbridge to crimea or really advance at all. Russias tank production has increased significantly as has their drone, shell and ammunition production. Finally there is no way for the Ukrainians to get an advantage in the air with the amount of f16s that will be donated even if they did have trained ground crews and air crews (which would take around 2-4 years).
It just seems insane to me that "leftists" are still screaming at you for calling for a ceasefire when its questionable if there is even enough artillery in the west to enable a successful counteroffensive and we don't seem to be willing to give them a sufficient amount of modern MBTs, APCs, and IFVs in anycase (which are more important than modern main battle tanks).
This was a great interview! Reading that new yorker piece "two weeks at the front" gave me a similar impression that the war wasnt going exactly how the west depicts it (that morale is very low amongst military age men in ukraine and its forced conscription at this point).
I'm not sure that the west really even gave the ukranians enough mechanized armour to enable a successful counteroffensive- we only sent them around 100 modern main battle tanks (14 challenger 2s, 70 or so leopard 2 variants mostly 2a4, and 31 abrahms). I believe they have also received additional leopard 2s after Russia knocked out around 14 or so. Most of the western armored vehicles donated were either M113s at 500 of those donated or MRAPs which we sent around 1000 of those (M113s vehicles were deathtraps back in nam so these donations are of questionable value). We did give them around 200 bradleys, 50 marders, and a number of strykers. The thing is none of these vehicles can get through a minefield really and clearing minefields just takes forever. Usually you need an artillery advantage or local air superiority and there aren't enough artillery barrels and shells in the west to do that. Given how bad the counteroffensive has gone with all the new donated equipment and the fact that the west has signaled we are likely to decrease funding over time I really don't see how they are going to retake the landbridge to crimea or really advance at all. Russias tank production has increased significantly as has their drone, shell and ammunition production. Finally there is no way for the Ukrainians to get an advantage in the air with the amount of f16s that will be donated even if they did have trained ground crews and air crews (which would take around 2-4 years).
It just seems insane to me that "leftists" are still screaming at you for calling for a ceasefire when its questionable if there is even enough artillery in the west to enable a successful counteroffensive and we don't seem to be willing to give them a sufficient amount of modern MBTs, APCs, and IFVs in anycase (which are more important than modern main battle tanks).
I especially appreciated Danny's comments on spooks. They don't have the same quality of psychos working at Langley these days.
Excellent discussion. Quality guest. Please send Lily a better mic. It was difficult to hear her and she had much to say that was worth hearing.
Thanks, boyz ;-)